Tuesday, 6 January 2009

Is Pakistan responsible for Mumbai terror attack

Is Pakistan responsible?
Both Pakistan and India used Intelligence Agencies to fuel insurgency. Pakistan however sought to control Islamist insurgencies both in Kashmir and Afghanistan. This ultimately weakened those insurgencies. India also backed an insurgency in Bangladesh. However, the Indian aim was to get the genocidal Pak army out before Bengal turned into a second Vientnam. Still the Indian political class became paranoid about RAW and later on it was drastically cut down to size. In Pakistan, the ISI used terrorism and insurgency to give their country strategic depth and bargaining power. It is an open question as to whether this strategy has paid off. Certainly a lot of money has come to Pakistan as a result. The question is would Pakistan have done better under Civilian control? The plain facts of the matter are that India- unlike Pakistan- has no territorial ambitions. India does not present a threat to Pakistan. But if there is no external threat to Pakistan- at least from India- then there is a major threat to the Army and the ISI. What is to prevent their being cut down to size? In India the Army has no political power whatsoever. Back in the early 70’s there were rumours that Sam Maneckshaw- the Army Chief would intervene. Mrs. Gandhi called him in but there was nothing to the story. Similarly, during the Emergency, there was a lot of talk about RAW rigging the upcoming elections. It wasn’t true. Still, the Indian tradition has been to marginalise the military. In some Indian States- those afflicted with Naxalite activity- we see that, from Independence onwards, the Centre tried to bolster para-military and reserve police forces so as to counter a perceived threat from the Left. This strategy proved entirely counter-productive.
Indian political life is chaotic and today’s elite may be rendered impotent the next day. There is a huge amount of violence and criminalization in politics. However, India is not exporting its problems as Pakistan is doing. This is because, the State is essentially democratic- oriented towards seeking political solutions- the game of parliamentary musical chairs- rather than founded on an over-riding ideology.
There is no comparison between India’s involvement with its neighbours and that of Pakistan.
Genocides carried out by Pakistan against its own citizens- including air strikes in Baluchistan and mass rapes and slaughter in Bangladesh- make anything the Indians did pale into insignificance.
POK is not at all Azad. It’s government is not elected. The people are not free. The people mainly speak a language similar to Punjabi unlike the Kashmiri speaking majority in the valley. Will the nouveau riche of Muzzafarabad- grown rich on remittances from relatives working abroad- really accept the domination of the better educated but poorer Kashmiris of the valley? Nutty Jihadism paranoia is the vehicle by which they hope to foreclose democracy as an option for that region.
The tragedy is that Pakistanis are a hard working people with a great commercial ethos. They should come up economically and exert dominance that way. There is no military short cut to prosperity. This is not the age of Genghis Khan or Nadir Shah.
India, of course, is not an ideal country. Its politicians care for nothing except to grow rich and fight amongst themselves for the title ‘champion of the poor’. However, India has an active Civil Society. A people’s movement is needed to drive out the criminals and crackpots from political life. The police, in particular, must be made autonomous and answerable to the public only through the judicial- not the political- system. Success in tackling terrorism of the Mumbai type rests largely on the ordinary policeman- not the super Agencies. This, at any rate, is what U.S experts have found out. You can read STRATFOR on the subject.
Still, the question remains- is Pakistan profiting by its strategy or is it losing money? I honestly don’t know. However, my thinking is, now a World recession is upon us, Pakistan will find it more difficult to get external finance for this agenda. Of course, America under Obama may intensify the Afghan war thus giving Pakistan a respite.
We shall have to wait and see.

No comments:

Post a Comment